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On February 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of two break-away republics in Donbass of eastern Ukraine. Did it come as a surprise? Yes and no.
Because of this decision, Russia will find itself under more severe sanctions from the West. Definitely, they will slow down the modernization of the economy and will affect the living standard of the Russian people, but they will not undermine the position of President Putin as the majority of the population supports his decision. As for the international dimension, there are claims that the independence of Donbass changes the world order and international security at the global level. This is a false assessment. It will be a local frozen situation if the West does not escalate the situation further. You may ask ordinary people in Italy or France how they view the conflict in Donbass in their everyday life. The answer will be obvious, "read reports in mass media." Not enough time has passed to make a long-term forecast but it is necessary to keep a sober mind so as not to make a miscalculation that could aggravate the situation. No reasonable person wants a large-scale war in Europe.
It's the US government that keeps escalating the situation around Ukraine and stirring up tension inside that country. Actually, there are three goals. The first one has to do with domestic Ukrainian politics. The US is trying to bolster anti-Russian nationalist forces. British mass media gives a hand claiming that well-known opposition leader Yevhen Murayev is a pro-Russian public figure. The final end is to unite the domestic anti-Russian front and suppress all who could come out for cooperation with Russia. That is why many Russian-speaking TV channels are closed in Ukraine and opposition is prosecuted. Western mass media keep tight-lipped about that.
The second US goal is to create an anti-Russian Ukraine to resist so-called Russian expansionism and to counterbalance Russia in Eastern Europe. The irony is that if Russian leadership had the intention to break up Ukraine into different parts or to annex it, the most appropriate time would have been right after the coup d'état in the capital Kiev in 2014, but it did not happen. The US and its allies have been creating a Ukraine that willingly joins NATO's strategy to contain Russia. That is why they supply military hardware, train Ukrainian personnel and hold joint military exercises. They have been striving to achieve combat cohesion so the Ukrainian and NATO military could fight together with their common adversary, Russia. Ukraine is just a US and NATO tool to confront Russia.
The third US goal is to include Ukraine in the US and NATO grand strategy to contain Russia in Europe and to ensure US influence in that region. Since 2014, the US and NATO have been pursuing their strategy based on the formula D D (Deterrence and Defense) toward Russia. For this purpose, the US came out of its way to consolidate the collective West and use both NATO and non-NATO countries to realize this goal. Ukraine plays a special role here. Ukrainian authorities have been working hard to obtain NATO membership though it is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, Ukraine joined the US strategy hoping to accelerate membership into NATO. The US' final goal in Europe is not only to keep Ukraine from Russia. That is an interim aim. The long-term goal is to weaken Russia and diminish it as a threat to European security and beyond.
Did the US achieve its ends? Partially, yes. It managed to consolidate the collective West against Russia and to paint it as an aggressor and a threat to the Western community. However, all attempts failed to make Russia refuse its vital security interests in Europe. The Russian position is also strong because it is bolstered by China's support that also experiences unjustified pressure from the US and its allies.
What can be done to evade further dangerous confrontation? One of the biggest problems is a lack of trust. Trust can be restored and confrontation stopped if the West accepts mutually beneficial security guarantees offered by Russia. They include stopping NATO expansion to the East. Besides, it is vital to avoid deploying missile systems on the territory of NATO member-states close to Russia. All in all, Russia needs mutual legally binding security guarantees from its Western neighbors.
The time of promises passed. As the starting point for negotiations, the counterparts could agree on the resumption of a dialogue between the militaries. Second, it would be advisable to begin mutual reduction of the military activity along the line of Russia-NATO contact on specific terms. And third, parties could arrange a mechanism to prevent dangerous military activity in the sea and in air space. If the West does not accept Russian proposals and keeps up escalation, Russia will have to resort to a military response by increasing its combat capability.
The author is deputy head of the International and National Security Department, Diplomatic Academy, Moscow. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
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